overview
business
related
Guides:
Publishing
Networks
& the GII
Censorship
Accessibility
related
Notes:
Dot-com
bubble
Adult
Content
Internet
Fridge
|
business and futures
This
page considers questions about business models, media
spin, forecasts regarding adult mobile video and the shape
of future mobile tv devices.
It covers -
introduction
As of mid-2007 the "mobile tv revolution", although
recurrently announced, has not arrived.
The experience of business has been disappointing, the
enthusiasm of consumers has not matched that of promoters,
and regulators have been cautious in driving development.
That state is likely to continue for several years and
spruiking of particular products or services over the
past five years increasingly looks misplaced - a reflection
of the interaction of journalists, analysts and investors
rather than an accurate assessment of market needs and
capabilities.
media spin
Do consumers want mobile television, in particular content
comprising full length movies and television programmes
rather than short music video clips, news and sports items,
and screen savers. The answer is unclear.
As with much communication technology, such as the video
phone and the internet fridge,
consumers appear to have often responded to simplistic
surveys by indicating that yes, they indeed "want"
or "are interested in" mobile tv. Perceived
demand has been uncritically retailed by journalists in
the specialist and mass media, often in conjunction with
material provided by solutions vendors eager to persuade
network operators (or merely to boost ailing share prices)
and by network operators (justifying
billions spent on 3G networks or on acquisition of competitors).
Much of the coverage has been distinctly breathless, with
liberal use of words such as "revolution", "breakthrough",
"high value", "remarkable opportunity"
and of course "the future".
IDC proclaimed
that its
latest
research into the ongoing developments of mobile multimedia
reveals that disparate audio and video services are
now being merged into a single, immersive experience
- "mobile TV". This new research identifies
mobile TV broadcasting as an innovative example of multimedia
convergence on the cellular platform, as well as being
a revolutionary mechanism for digital content delivery
to mobile phones.
"Catalysing consumer digital convergence, mobile
TV represents the zenith of mobile convergence as it
completes the mobile triple play picture by bringing
content to the handset," ....
With a host of international digital broadcasting standards
already in place, the implementation of mobile TV is
carefully crafted as a high-value proposition for the
mobile ecosystem.
"Since mobile TV broadcasting is a nascent industry
anywhere in the world, understanding users' consumption
behaviour and preferences, which can be highly localised,
will be the ultimate key to its success"
Dig
underneath the buzz about zeniths, catalysts, breakthroughs
or immersive experiences and reality looks more complex.
Consumers have typically indicated a reluctance to pay
- particularly pay a considerable premium - for content
that they believe can be accessed for free (and, in the
case of sport, should be accessed for free). As noted
in the preceding page, under 1% of respondents in some
studies have indicated a willingness to pay for much content.
More broadly, there is a gap between expressions of interest
and actual behaviour, explored in the discussion of audience
research elsewhere on this site.
Contrary to forecasts about large-scale demand for multimedia
message service (MMS)
transmissions from one network user to another or for
paid-access by consumers to content from commercial content
providers there has been little actual demand in most
markets.
That is unsurprising, given -
- service
quality
- the
viewing experience on mobile phones (still the main
'platform' for most mobile tv users)
- perceptions
that subscription and/or per-item prices are too high
(particularly for target demographics such as under-21
girls and lads)
- network
and hardware restrictions (eg viewing is not available
on all networks and all devices or viewing is tied to
a specific model of phone, such as the Virgin Mobile
'Lobster', that consumers find unattractive)
Claims that mobile tv (or particular services, such as
adult content) will
"galvanise demand" for 3G should accordingly
be treated with caution. Consumer purchases are not necessarily
identical with expressed intentions. Purchases may be
conditioned by service affordability and by accessibility.
x-mobiles
As noted in the more detailed discussion of the online
adult content industry,
enthusiasts have recurrently claimed that mobile erotica
would come to the rescue of ailing 3G networks.
Charles Prast of UK operator Private Media Group thus
reportedly argued that adult content will be the "main
driver of third-generation (3G) mobile services demand",
with adult services initially likely to account for 80
per cent of 3G traffic. Telco consultants Ovum asked Can
Adult Entertainment Save 3G?, noting claims that
global online adult content might be worth US$1 billion
pa and that wireless devices such as PDAs rather than
mobile phones would allow discreet consumption.
In 2004 Yankee Group predicted that the US market for
adult content on "handsets"
will grow to around US$90m in the US and US$1bn globally
by 2008. In 2007 Juniper Research claimed that global
sales of "adult mobile content" in 2006 were
around US$1.4bn, forecasting that by 2011 adult content
will account for US$3.3bn of mobile content sales (out
of US$77bn in mobile entertainment revenue).
The shape of demand (and the accuracy of those estimates)
is problematical, with questions for example about claims
of an untapped market of female consumers wanting access
to adult content on their phone. Australian and US telcos
have been squeamish about close association with adult
services (although of course prepared to deal at an arm's
length though specialist service providers). There is
uncertainty about whether there is a sufficient number
of consumers wanting to directly access substantial adult
video on their phones (as distinct to downloading content
onto a PDA or laptop from the net or viewing short clips).
futures
Is there a future for mobile television?
One response to that question is that distinctions between
free to air terrestrial broadcast 'television', subscription
'television' (traditionally delivered via cable or satellite)
and 'mobile television' (delivered to a handset or other
'small screen' device) are already blurring and will increasingly
do so in future.
Another response is that - apart from access/transmission
costs and unappealing content - the main barrier to uptake
of mobile tv has been accessibility,
with consumers failing to engage with the technology because
images are so small and so poor. That would be addressed
through marketing of PDA-style phones with larger screens
or even a new geneneration of devices that are primarily
intended for watching television (and that might also
serve as platforms for reading electronic
books and as GPS
navigation aids).
Such suggestions have provoked the rejoinder that many
consumers do not appear to be particularly interested
in convergence, preferring
discrete devices for specific users. Multi-function devices
might thus secure only part of an atomised market, albeit
one that is sufficiently profitable.
::
|
|
Ketupa