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mobiles
This page considers mobile phone access to the net.
It covers -
introduction
Much of the literature about wireless access assumes that
users aspire to broadband connectivity, in particular
the ability to engage with web content, to quickly transfer
large files or use high-bandwidth applications such as
video and multi-player gaming. That writing presupposes
that access via a desktop machine (with a large monitor,
fast processing time, large keyboard and mouse) or a laptop
are the norm.
In fact, the main exposure to wireless internet of many
people - perhaps most people - outside an office has been
via their mobile phones, in particular sending/receiving
SMS.
Manufacturers, vendors and some telephony operators have
experienced disappointment after visions that business
or other consumers would quickly move to handheld devices
that enable conventional web surfing, voice telephony,
electronic payments, digital photography and other activities.
Australia
The Australian mobile phone market grew by around one
million new subscribers per year from 1994 (with peak
growth in 1995, when around two million subscribers joined).
In 2000 the number of mobile phone accounts had reached
8.5 million, compared to around 10.6 million fixed lines
in use at that time as "main lines" (with upwards
of a further 11 million lines in use). By December 2002
that had increased to 12.5 million mobile phone subscriptions,
with 72% of all households having access to a mobile.
The ITU suggests that at that time there were around 23
million subscribers in Australia, with some subscribers
having multiple accounts and using several telephone service
providers.
futures
A
2003 European Commission study on Mobile Entertainment
in Europe: Current State of the Art (PDF)
and Albert Efimov's thoughtful 2002 Rabbit's Return:
An Exploration of WiFi Business Models (PDF)
reflect disagreement about demand, pricing, regulatory
frameworks and costs.
A 2003 report
from Strategy Analytics suggested that "mobile adult-oriented
services" might be worth up to US$1 billion by 2008.
That figure would, however, represent around 5% of mobile
entertainment service revenues and is less than half the
value of the ringtones
market in Western Europe in 2002.
UK operator Private Media Group has argued that adult
content will be the "main driver of third-generation
(3G) mobile services demand", with adult content
dropping to about 20% of overall traffic
once 3G is established. Analysts estimate that the value
of the online porn market will be $70bn (£44bn)
in 2006, of which $4bn (£2.4bn) might come from
mobile services. As we have noted in a more detailed discussion
of the online adult content market, it is however unclear
whether consumers are going to consistently pay for blurry
video on their mobile phones or download large amounts
of video erotica via wireless to laptops and PDAs.
Japanese
end of Jupiter Media Metrix, noted for its optimism about
online growth and undeterred by hardware/software problems
that led to the recall of around half a million mobile
phones in the past quarter, predicted
in 2001 that Japan's wireless
internet market would surge by about 1,400 percent
by 2005 to 594 billion Yen (US$5.11 billion).
That figure includes the value of shopping, wireless content
and advertising. The latter categories are, of course,
distinctly dodgy, with criticisms of inflated values and
revelations that much online advertising's been provided
on a nominal basis.
Jupiter argued that the market in 2000 had a value of
Y39 billion (US$335.2 million). Globally, the estimate
is that the preceding year's worldwide wireless market
was Y43 billion ($369.7 million), growing to Y2.39 trillion
(US$20.53 billion) in 2005. The US market was to grow
to Y380 billion (US$3.26 billion) from 2000's Y1 billion
(US$8.59 million).
Predicting that the number of net-enabled mobile phone
users would grow to 66 million in 2005, from 1999's figure
of 27 million, it saw opportunities for airline operators,
music providers and advertising firms.
Somewhat more credibly, Jupiter's rival Strategis predicted
that mobile data penetration in the US will reach 60%
in 2007, up from its current level of around 2%. That's
in line with several forecasts cited in our Network
guide, pundits envisaging that data (including text and
video) will supplant voice traffic.
Mobile data subscribers will grow from 5 million in 2000
to 172 million in 2007. Strategis forecasts the sector
with the biggest growth will be packet data over cellular
networks, accounting for up to 67% of the mobile data
market in 2007, 'dedicated data' comprising 16% of the
market, and satellite services (such as Iridium, now very
expensive space junk) accounting for less than 1%.
What's going to drive the growth? The future for them
appears to be driven by the industry majors: "massive
growth in the US market will be driven by the aggressive
rollout of high-speed services" from giants such
as AT&T.
Skeptics would note the difficulties being experienced
by AT&T in particular and the recent wave of announcements
by the Baby Bells, BT, Telstra and others winding back
major infrastructure investment plans. You can build the
digital field of dreams but the consumers won't necessarily
come.
Cahners looked
into the crystal ball and saw sales of wireless internet
devices soaring until at least 2004. They will "soon
replace PCs as the most popular method of accessing the
Net".
Why? A clue is given by the claim that "by the end
of 2002 practically al new wireless phones will have a
micro-browser and will be Internet-enabled. By 2004 sales
of Internet-enabled mobile phones will have passed the
1 billion mark".
We have commented in the past that ownership of an information
device - computer, digital assistant, mobile phone, video
recorder - doesn't necessarily equate to use of any/all
features. While phones may allow you to access email,
or even surf the web in a rudimentary fashion, there are
few indications that most people will use those facilities
on an ongoing basis.
Usability problems aside - which have led to the abandonment
of several trials - widespread consumer uptake of the
technology is affected by considerations such as cost
(the phones may be cheap, online fees less so) and security.
And as one British commentator observed, during the time
required to make an online reservation using the keys
on a mobile phone the hapless user could more comfortably
ring the restaurant. Voice is "low-tech" but
unsurpassed for some purposes.
The Cahners vision also conflicts with that of rivals,
who assume that most people will access a richer web -
replete with audio and video - over a broadband network
based on PCs and fibre.
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